Aberdeen advices investors to be China cautious
While the Chinese stock market has surged 135% in the past year, Aberdeen Asset Management (Aberdeen) advices investors to avoid being seduced by the hype and instead invest in companies which are consistently growing their earnings.
According to Aberdeen, recent exuberance suggests many investors are taking a punt on the markets rather than seeking a long term investment position. The fundamentals of many the stocks trading on Shanghai’s surging A share market, do not justify the valuations, and should be avoided.
It is completely irrational and unfounded that the Construction Bank of China with limited experience of lending money commercially, has had a larger market capitalisation than the proven and established Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC).
When you hear stories that up to 250,000 online trading accounts are being opened each day by the Chinese, alarm bells of a potential bubble begin to sound. Aberdeen do not own A shares and only invest via the more established and more regulated Hong Kong market.
While the Chinese government has taken steps to take some of the heat out of the market, by tripling stamp duty for example, Aberdeen is still cautious.
Aberdeen would welcome a slowdown in China’s share market. As long time and long term investors in China, Aberdeen has always been more comfortable investing in Hong Kong listed shares as they are generally of a better quality, adhere to a higher level of regulatory oversight and offer greater liquidity.
Aberdeen sees better investment opportunities in companies such as China Mobile, a Hong-Kong listed share which is a beneficiary of the good demand for mobile services across China.
From the under penetrated rural areas of China alone they have seen subscription growth at above 50% per annum, increasing spend per customer and this is being translated in better earnings and dividend growth.
23-Aug-2007